ASML Stock Q1 2026

Earning call

2026 Q1

Well here we are in Q1 2026 and as said last quarter the risk reward equation is not what it was last year with now a 47x P/E and I feel that I can find better risk reward.

On a risk reward axis still the same as last quarter :

For memory this was my valuation in Q1 2025 :

And something to keep in mind is that management still hasen't changed there long term guidance as we said in the last quarter.

for memory :

All in all they had a great quarter where they hit 8.8Bn euros in revenue which is the high part of the guidance they provided, same for margins. They also elevated their guidance. Which is a good sign as the management is generally conservative, which shows they are gaining confidance in the there future numbers.

All great signs and a good company BUT we must remember that the semiconductor industry is cyclical and we want to buy when things do not look good and they are more rough than usual. That is just not the case right now. It doesn't mean that things can't continue to get better and the share price can keep going higher. But the risk is there, and the upside is rather limited right now. I'll revisit it when the share price is at least 30% lower. There are just better opportunities out there right now at those price levels.

I would say that now under the 800-750 euro per share it could become again interesting to take a look at the stock. I'll keep following it until a great opportunity shows itself again.